As we mentioned before, prices do not cause prices. The reasons that lie behind price movements in the forex market are the subject of fundamental analysis, and those familiar with trading stocks should have little trouble in becoming familiar with fundamental analysis of currencies. Just as stock traders measure the health of a publicly-traded company by examining its balance sheet, indebtedness and cash flow statistics, the forex trader decides on the soundness of a nation’s economy by considering such things as central bank interest rate differentials (which is the difference between the borrowing costs as decided by the central banks of different countries), trade surplus or deficits, along with employment trends, productivity, and a number of other factors.

Fundamental analysis states the causes of major price movements in a straightforward and clear manner. For instance, because of the ease of borrowing and the resultant abundance of global liquidity in recent years, the interest rate differential between two nations’ central banks has been the most important indicator in determining price trends in the forex market. While this is unlikely to remain so in today’s difficult environment, interest rates will remain one of the most important drivers of currency market trends for as long as financial actors are free to move capital across national borders.

Fundamental analysis attempts to discover and predict the causes of forex trends, and in doing so it uses a number of indicators to present a comprehensive picture of global finance. But beyond the indicators themselves, what really causes a currency pair to move in a particular direction? Are currency movements really decided by statistics and news flow only?

This question brings us to another definition of fundamental analysis: Fundamental analysis attempts to predict money flows into and out of a particular currency. Statistics are significant only as far as the markets regard them as a basis for directing cross-border money flows. A nation can have very low unemployment, a high current account surplus, excellent productivity rates, and very good statistics in general, and its currency can still do poorly against others — if, despite all those advantages, there’s a greater supply of it with respect to total demand. In other words, no indicator, no statistic or standard is enough to magically appreciate a currency versus another, if the general economic environment (i.e. the financial markets in general), is unwilling to make use of the advantages that a sound and healthy economy provides.

Later we will return and take a deeper look at fundamental analysis.

The strength of fundamental analysis lies in its ties with economic events at the root level. It is relatively straightforward about its descriptions, and its rules and principles are often simple and easy to understand. And, the fact that fundamental causes decide the major trends in forex markets is indisputable. The trader possesses a very reliable tool in this kind of analysis. The problem with fundamental analysis, on the other hand, is twofold: it’s very poor as a timing indicator; and markets do not always react to its dictates in a rational manner. What must be remembered when the market value of a currency is a lot different from its fundamental value, is that the market would not have tolerated an irrational quote if some people somewhere were not making a great profit from that irrationality. It is therefore imperative that the analyst identify the abnormality, examine the causes of it, and formulate a strategy to exploit the discrepancy.

If fundamental analysis is a poor method for deciding on the timing of a trade, what will you, the trader, use to define your entry and exit points? Which method will allow you to decide when to take a profit or accept a loss? This question leads us to introduce the subject of technical analysis.

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So we know what the forex market is, and we know what we want to do with it: We want to make money. How do we make money? That’s where we must understand forex analysis.

Forex analysis is the tool with which people aim to make sense of the seemingly random developments in a typical day’s price action. Without analysis, all we’d have is a massive list of price quotes that's updated on our screens every single second, and there would be no way of making any sense of it.

As with every other event in nature, developments in the currency market manifest themselves through cause and effect which are analyzed through the two branches of forex analysis: fundamental and technical. One problem people often have when studying forex analysis is failing to understand that price action is the result of a series of events that are independent of the price action itself. In other words: prices do not cause prices. The study of those economic and political factors which cause price movements is called fundamental analysis. Prices do, however, create patterns (such as head and shoulders, triangles, double tops or bottoms, etc.), the study of which is the subject of technical analysis.

What causes prices to move in a particular direction? Obviously this is the most important question that one must have answered in order to make a profit in currency trading. Major geopolitical and economic events undoubtedly create the powerful, long lasting undercurrents in the forex market. But, there are factors such as daily trade flows, cross-border mergers, currency options expiration-related activity, and other psychological factors which distort the underlying picture for those who are not very familiar with currency trading.

But let’s first briefly examine the two types of analysis that we just mentioned, before returning to the subject of the previous paragraph.

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There are a lot of nations in the world and consequently a large number of currencies to choose from when trading. The currencies of Brazil, Russia, China, the Eurozone, Turkey, Japan, South Africa and Canada are popular with large and small traders, for different reasons. What the market values most in a trade can change depending on government policies and the global economic environment. For example, during the flowery days of the carry trade, many traders would simply long (buy) the currency offering the highest interest rate, and short (sell) the one offering the lowest interest rate, with little consideration given to the underlying economic soundness. Such a strategy is less likely to be profitable in today’s chaotic environment with interest rates racing lower across the globe, and fundamental economic strength is once again the major concern in deciding on currency allocations.

In order to simplify the matter, let us group the currencies into four types and examine each of them briefly:

Reserve Currencies

There’s really only one true reserve currency in the world with dominance of about two-thirds of central bank accounts, and it is the US dollar, the currency of international trade. But there are also others, such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen and to a greater extent, the Euro, which play the same role, and as such are of higher quality and offer greater safety in times of trouble.

Commodity Currencies

These are currencies of nations with a heavy dependence on commodity exports, such as the Canadian and Australian dollars or the Brazilian real, and their performance is closely related to the performance of the global commodity markets.

Exporter Currencies

These are currencies of the likes of Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, or China — although it’s difficult to trade the Ren Min Bi (RMB) due to capital controls — with healthy external trade surpluses. These nations often have a high private and corporate savings ratio, and are better placed to survive periods of financial difficulties as they have little need for external borrowing. As exporters, they will most often choose to keep their currencies priced lower against competitors to keep their products more competitive in the global markets.

High risk, high deficit, high yield currencies

In analogy with the bond market, one could also term these currencies junk currencies, in that the economies are usually dependent on external financing, with greatest domestic activity concentrated in real estate, finance, and tourism-related industries. Many emerging markets are members of this group, but there are also other, relatively advanced nations such as (alas!) the UK, or Iceland, which nowadays can be considered to belong to this category. Further examples would be Turkey, Romania and Hungary — as a group, they have suffered the worst of the troubles of 2008.

What use is this categorization to the trader? It's mainly for those who want some diversification in their currency portfolios, in accordance with the ancient wisdom of not putting all eggs in the same basket. The above categories suggest that good diversification cannot be achieved by, for example, allocating long positions to both the Turkish lira, and the Romanian leu in the same account, as both of these currencies share the junk status. Nor can the trader claim to diversify his positions by buying the Brazilian real, and selling both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen to fund the purchase. Both the franc and the yen are exporter currencies, and they are likely to make similar moves in response to financial developments. Forex brokers and websites sometimes offer correlation charts (which depict the price relationship between currency pairs during a specific time period), and the interested reader can learn more on this subject by studying them. But in general, positions in different currencies in a single category are likely to react like a single position of a single currency to market events; the trader should always keep this in mind when managing his account.

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It’s very important that the trader gain a good grasp of these two concepts before engaging in any deals, because leverage and margin determine the lifespan of any trading account in a far more decisive manner than either technical or fundamental analysis.

Margin trading is trading with borrowed funds, and is closely related to leveraging. The broker allows the trader to control a far greater amount of money in the market in exchange for a small deposit of funds, with the understanding that the sum borrowed must be returned in exact amount, with any losses or profits returned to the account of client (the trader).

The amount that the client can control is determined by a number called the leverage ratio, and even the occasional observer can notice this number being proclaimed loudly by brokers in the advertisements that they scatter everywhere online. It’s not that difficult to grasp what the leverage ratio does: it simply multiplies the trader’s potential losses and gains in the market by the specified amount. For instance at a leverage ratio of 1/100, the client (you) will be able to control 100,000 USD which makes a standard lot, for a deposit of a mere 1,000 USD, and every single pip gain or loss will be multiplied a hundred times. To put this in a better perspective, you need a movement of just 1% in the price quote before your account is doubled — or wiped out.

One will often come across notices on broker websites making the claim that leverage is a double-edged sword; that you can both lose and gain massively depending on what you do. But high leverage, for sure, is a sword with only one edge, and we will discuss why it is so later.

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A pip is the smallest amount of movement a price quote can make. In other words, each tick of the price quote is a pip. When EUR/USD moves from 1.2786 to 1.2787, for example, it has moved by one pip. You could also call it a point or a tick, but in forex traders’ jargon, pip is the word.

It’s a good idea to measure your profit or loss in pips rather than in the amount you actually lose or earn, since the trader’s performance can only be valued through his success in gathering pips. For instance, supposing trader A has a beginning capital of 100 USD, and trader B has only 10, it would take trader B ten times as much in terms of pips to achieve the same gain that was acquired by trader A in absolute dollar terms. In terms of their prowess in the market, however, if trader B were to make just 1/10 of what trader A makes, they’d still be equal, due to the the difference between their starting capital. This same logic can be utilized when assessing one’s own prowess, and if a diary is kept, it’s always better to note the loss or profit in pips, rather than cash, so as to keep a better track of performance.

It must also be remembered that one pip in the currency pair that is traded may not be the same amount in the trader’s base currency, that is, the currency with which he funds his account. For instance, if your currency is the British Pound, and you’re trading the EUR/USD, one pip movement in the currency pair would be a different amount in your base currency, depending on the quotes.

Another important term in trading forex is the lot, which is the smallest amount of currency you can trade at a particular level of leverage, and the standard lot size is 100,000 USD. Among today’s forex brokers, there are those who allow traders to enter bids without the use of lots (sometimes called mini lots), and the inexperienced trader may seek them before gaining enough confidence to start trading with a higher volume.

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Our first grade in forex literacy is for understanding how to read the price quote. In forex, currencies are always quoted in pairs. In other words, it’s only possible to value a currency in terms of another one. If you want to buy 100 Euros, how are you going to pay for it? If you were to pay in euros, you’d not be currency trading, and when you use another currency to fund your purchase of the euros, you’re actually creating a forex quote.

It’s actually quite easy to evaluate forex quotes once you get the hang of it, and the fastest way to learn is by considering some examples:

EUR/USD 1.2786

So what does the above quote tell us? What it says is that 1 Euro is able to buy 1.27 units of the US currency. Or, continuing on our previous transaction, we would have to pay

127 USD for 100 Euros we wanted to buy.

But in fact this value is only the average of the bids (price to buy) and offers (price to sell) for a currency pair at a particular time. The bid-ask spread is usually very low for the most liquid pairs, such as the EUR/USD, but at times of illiquidity in the markets, as before a statistical news release, or a central bank decision, the spread can widen to much greater levels.

The quote represents the best pricing that the world market offers for a currency pair at a particular moment. A quote on a computer does not usually include all of the offers and bids all over the world, but because of the very liquid nature of the forex market, any significant difference in quotes across different parts of the world is very quickly eliminated through computer-based, automatic arbitrage, and consequently, except at times of market turmoil the difference between regional quotes is quite low.

So let’s say return to the EUR/USD quote. Our quote is at 1.2786, and the bid-ask spread is at 0.009, as stated by the broker. What this means is that there’s a difference of 0.9 cent between what you pay to buy the same currency pair, and what you’d receive if you were selling it. There’s always a spread in even the most liquid markets, but the spread is usually widened further by the brokerage firm, so that it can make a profit from the individual traders’ deals.

The important point to keep in mind when evaluating quotes is that one quote is valid for only a fraction of a second. At times of market tension, great fluctuations can occur within the scope of one minute, rendering the quote almost useless. Despite the great focus on prices and price patterns among many traders, it’s always advisable to keep the time of the day, of the year, and the emotional atmosphere of the market in mind while deciding on what we should do about a particular quote. For example, quotes during the last few weeks of the year, or in the Thanksgiving week, or at about an hour before the opening of the US market have far less value in determining future price direction and trends than those seen during an ordinary business day at regular hours. So, to repeat, the trader must not only know the price quote at a given moment, but also the seasonal, hourly, and emotional backgrounds that influence the quote before he decides to make a trade on the information.

That skill can be gained through practice, and is perhaps easier learned through experience than reading.
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Many of us have been fascinated by the shiny, colorful world of currencies as children, and even those of us who have little interest in the forex market have engaged in some form of currency trading while traveling outside their homeland. And these days, one will easily find people discussing the advantages and weaknesses of the US dollar even in a casual gathering.

The forex market is the currency market: it’s where the value of each currency is determined versus every other currency in the world. If you exchange one US dollar for its equivalent value in Euros, you’re already a part of the forex market, and are creating the quotes you see reported on TV screens every day. There’s no difference between the actions of a tourist at an exchange bureau, and the transactions of banks in the international market, apart from size and maturity terms.

In today’s integrated and specialized economies it’s rare to find all the components of any product produced inside one country’s borders, and so, international trade is a major creator of global forex volume. Deepening financial interactions across the globe through partnerships, buyouts of firms and international loans, along with ever complex tools of investment have been increasing the size of the forex market in recent years. If global trade and finance were the body of world economy, the forex market would be the circulatory system; in other words, there doesn’t exist a deeper, more liquid market than that of currency trading. Almost every political or economical event of long-term significance is reflected in its workings, and understanding it results in a very good comprehension of finance and economics in general.

Participating in such a vast and significant mechanism can be a rewarding and exciting experience for the individual investor. But while this is true, success during your interactions with the giants will require more than a bit of diligence and patient study. The rewards can be immense: famous investors such as George Soros, Jim Rogers, large Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs, or banks like Citibank all make millions of dollars each year from trading in the forex market. In fact George Soros is notorious as being the man who broke the Bank of England: Through successful speculations, he was able to make 1 billion dollars in just about a week.
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If you study finance or have a career in a finance related field, chances are you have had some interaction or knowledge of the foreign exchange trading market. The sheer volume of trades in the foreign exchange market makes it the single largest financial market in the world. This is not a market for the timid or occasional trader. This is a very competitive market with players from global financial giants, retail currency traders, and governments of most countries in the world. To stay competitive in this spirited market you need to learn about forex currency trading.

Unfortunately, it's not as easy as it looks. The huge amount of information resources available regarding foreign currency trading can be daunting. For people who are new to the field, it's extremely difficult sorting the good information from the bad. Before relying on forex information you've found, determine if the source of the material is reliable.

You certainly don't want to bother with the sites that appear as search results simply due to search engine optimization. The major firms in the currency exchange industry provide on their sites a number of charts, graphs and other forms of analysis of foreign exchange information. These are international monetary corporations which maintain their good reputations by providing correct data and explanations. As you start to learn about forex currency trading, you will want to make their sites your initial locations.

If you are not just a student of finance curious about the foreign exchange market; and you foresee yourself earning a living trading forex, a structured course in foreign currency trading becomes inevitable. There are reputed financial institutions such as investment banks, stock exchanges etc. who have tied up with the leading universities and colleges in creating such structured courses in foreign exchange trading.

It would be wise if you don't restrict yourself to these structured courses alone. You can test yourself in order to obtain a certification in foreign exchange trading after you learn about forex currency trading. These certifications will also assist you in getting a job in financial institutions which specialize in currency trading.

There are prerequisites that must be met before you are ready to learn about forex currency trading. You must be firmly grounded in the basic principles of economics and capital markets.

If you are studying finance or are already working in the financial field, you must learn about forex currency trading to keep up with your competitors. Saying that is one thing, but it's much more difficult to actually do. The volume of data out there about this trade is enormous, and it can be confusing. To be certain of the credibility of forex information make sure that your information comes from a reputable source. If you foresee yourself earning a living trading forex, a structured course in foreign currency trading becomes inevitable. Financial institutions have tied up with universities and colleges to create structured courses in foreign exchange trading.

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Knowledge is power, and when it comes to the Forex market knowledge is the difference between an earning trader and a losing trader. A well educated trader is the one who knows all the basic terminology and exploits it to his own benefit. As a Forex trader you never stop learning, this what gives you the advantage over other traders, this is what separates you form the herd of traders and instead of following this herd you lead it. A good Forex education will help you make the right trading decisions and make wise investments, and as you keep on learning and gaining more and more knowledge you will see actual results as gains from Forex trading.

Here at Studyforex you will find everything you need to become such a successful trader. If you are a novice or a professional trader you will find here all the basic terminology and all the articles regarding Foreign exchange education. The site is designed to guide you through a journey in the world of foreign exchange trading. Beginning with the origins of the Forex market and a little bit of history and moving on to more advanced topics for the more experienced traders. This site is aimed to give you all the tools and education you will need to start trading the Forex market and will help you to improve your trading using various FX trading indicators and going through more advanced topics.

Our Forex education section is set to lead you on the highway to success, but don’t be alarmed, all the articles are written by our team of professional and experienced traders and is written in a very simple manner. The articles are designed as a step by step course leading you from the simplest terms up to complex mathematical tools to make you the best FX trader you can be. So what are you waiting for? Let’s start trading….

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The Australian forex market is essentially about exchanging Australian dollars for another currency and vise versa. The demand for Australian dollars in the forex market has risen significantly since the currency was floated by the government in December 1983.


With about A$1.9 trillion worth of transactions taking place everyday, the Australian dollar is the sixth most traded currency in theforex market . The currency lags only the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the Euro, the British pound sterling and the Canadian dollar in terms of trading volume.

Australia Forex: Reasons for Popularity of the Australian Dollar
The Australian forex market has benefited from the popularity of the country’s currency. Here are some of the reasons for the popularity of the Australian dollar:


The relative lack of government intervention in controlling the value of the currency in the forex market.

• Relatively high interest rate offered by the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA).
• The strategic location of Australia in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Free export and import of the currency up to A$10,000.
• Relative stability in the country’s political and economic environment.
• Lower impact of global recession on the Australian economy.

Australia Forex: Regulations for Brokers

Forex trading in Australia is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). The Australian law and regulations necessitate:

• All brokers offering retail forex services to be registered with the ASIC.
• All forex brokers to have an Australian Financial Services License. Alternatively, they could be licensed with the RBA.

Australian Forex: Importance of the Central Bank
The RBA plays a critical role in the Australian forex market. It meets 11 times in a year to discuss issues related to its monetary policy and interest rates. Its decision on interest rates can affect the value of the dollar in the Australianforex market.

Australia Forex: Most Active Trading Hours

The best hours to trade in the Australian currency is around the time when Tokyo trade opens. This is the time at which the Australian economic data, which has a direct impact on the value of the country’s currency, is released.

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Functions of the bank

It performs all the recognized functions of a central bank -- to maintain price stability, and subject to that, to support the economic policy of Her Majesty's Government (Bank of England Act 1998). It has a monopoly on the issue of banknotes in England and Wales (see Sterling); it is both the Government's banker and the bankers' bank; a "Lender of Last Resort"; it manages the country's foreign exchange and gold reserves and the Government's stock register; it used to be responsible for the regulation and supervision of the banking industry (see Johnson Matthey, BCCI, and Barings), although this responsibility was transferred to the Financial Services Authority in June 1998. Since 1997 the Monetary Policy Committee has had the responsibility for setting the official interest rate. Scottish and Northern Irish banks retain the right to issue their own banknotes, but they must be backed one to one with deposits in the Bank of England, excepting a few million pounds representing the value of notes they had in circulation in 1845. It maintains the Government's Consolidated Fund account.

The current Governor of the Bank of England is Sir Mervyn Allister King, who took over on June 30, 2003 from Sir Edward George.

History

The bank was founded along with the Bank of Scotland by William Paterson in 1694 to act as the English Government's banker; the Bank of Scotland was to be the Scottish Government's banker. He proposed a loan of £1.2m to the Government; in return the subscribers would be incorporated as the Governor and Company of the Bank of England with banking privileges including the issue of notes. The Royal Charter was granted on July 27, 1694. Public finances were in so dire a condition at the time that the terms of the loan were that it was to be serviced at a rate of 8% per annum, and there was also a service charge of £4000 per annum for the management of the loan. The first governor was Sir John Houblon, who is depicted in the £50 note issued in 1994. The charter was renewed in 1742, 1764, and 1781. In 1734 the Bank moved to its current location on Threadneedle Street, slowly acquiring the land to create the edifice seen today.

When the idea and reality of the National Debt came about during the 18th century this was also managed by the bank. By the charter renewal in 1781 it was also the bankers' bank - keeping enough gold to pay its notes on demand until February 26, 1797 when war had so diminished gold reserves that the Government prohibited the Bank from paying out in gold. This lasted until 1821.

The 1844 Bank Charter Act tied the issue of notes to the gold reserves and gave the bank sole rights with regard to the issue of banknotes. Private banks which had previously had that right retained it, provided that their headquarters were outside London and that they deposited security against the notes that they issued. A few English banks continued to issue their own notes until the last of them was taken over in the 1930s. The Scottish and Northern Irish private banks still have that right. Britain remained on the gold standard until 1931 when the gold and foreign exchange reserves were transferred to the Treasury. But their management was still handled by the Bank. In 1870 the Bank was given responsibility for interest rate policy.

During the governorship of Montagu Norman, which lasted from 1920 to 1944, the Bank made deliberate efforts to move away from commercial banking and become a central bank. In 1946, shortly after the end of Norman's tenure, the Bank was nationalised.

The nearest London Underground station, and thus a busy commuter stop, is Bank station.

In 1997 the bank's Monetary Policy Committee was given sole responsibility for setting interest rates to meet the Government's stated inflation target of 2.5%. This decision was taken by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown immediately following the 1997 general election. However the idea was originally that of Conservative MP Nicholas Budgen who proposed it as a Private Members Bill in 1996, the bill failed as it had neither the support of the government or the opposition. The act of 1997 is almost verbatim what Budgen proposed in 1996. Should inflation miss the target by over 1%, the governor would have write a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining why and how he would remedy the situation. This was an astute move for several reasons;

• it removed the polically controversial responsibility from the government
• it was very popular with the City of London, showing a sign of the new governments desire for a strong economy
  • Following the announcement the FTSE 100 leapt rapidly and,
  • the Pound reached its highest level against the Deutschmark since Sterling's exit from the ERM

Banknote issues

The Bank of England has issued banknotes since 1694. Notes were originally hand-written, although they were partially printed from 1725 onwards cashiers still had to sign each note and make them payable to someone. Notes were fully printed from 1855, no doubt to the relief of the banks' workers. Until 1928 all notes were "White Notes", printed in black and with a blank reverse. During the 20th century White Notes were issued in denominations between £5 and £1000, but in the 18th and 19th centuries there were White Notes for £1 and £2. In the twentieth century, the Bank issued notes for ten shillings and one pound for the first time on 22 November 1928 when the Bank took over responsibility for these denominations from the Treasury which had issued notes of these denominations three days after the declaration of war in 1914 in order to remove gold coins from circulation.

During the Second World War the German Operation Bernhard attempted to counterfeit various denominations between £5 and £50 in an attempt to destabilise the British economy, producing 500,000 notes each month in 1943 -- although most fell into Allied hands at the end of the war, forgeries were frequently appearing for years afterward, so all denominations of banknote above £5 were subsequently removed from circulation.

All old Bank of England notes remain exchangeable for current notes forever. Notes can either be taken in person to the Bank in London during normal business hours, or sent by post at the sender's risk to:

Exchanges,
Custodial Services,
Threadneedle Street,
London EC2R 8AH

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There’s been a lot of talk in the last year about the US dollar being replaced as a reserve currency, in part because of all the bailouts and “quantitative easing” done to jump-start our economy. With all the recent economic forums, such as the G20 in Pittsburgh, it’s no surprise that this has been a topic of conversation.

So, we started looking at ways to diversify ourselves off the US dollar. It’s possible that the dollar could be replaced as a reserve currency but more importantly, we realized that in the increasingly global economy, it’s dangerous to have all your money be from one country. There’s a reason why gold spiked to over $1,000 an ounce and it’s because people wanted stability.

However, if you don’t want to own gold, are there other options? I think a foreign exchange currency CD might be a good idea. Before we make any decisions, we should do some research about them in the first place. I’m going to use Everbank as an example because I already have a banking relationship with them and their website offers up a lot of good information about their products. For our review I’ll use the MarketSafe BRIC Certificate of Deposit as the example.

Why a Forex CD?

The idea behind foreign exchange, or Forex, is that you get to trade you dollars for some other currency. When the exchange rate changes, you either gain money or lose money. The name of the game is trying to figure out the trends and buy other currencies when the dollar is worth more and sell them back when the dollar is worth less. If you were to get into it you would find it’s a little more complicated, but that’s the gist.

Why a Forex CD? You get to dabble in foreign exchange currency trading without actually getting involved in any exchanging of foreign currency. More importantly, with this MarketSafe CD, you get to dabble in forex without putting any principal at risk. You get exposure to the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, Indian rupee, and the Chinese renminbi currencies in the form of a three-year CD.

If you think the value of the dollar will fall relative to this basket of four currencies in three years, then you’ll want to deposit money into the CD. If you don’t think it will, then you won’t. It’s as simple as that.

What is the Risk?

There is no risk that you would ever lose your principal with a MarketSafe CD but that doesn’t mean you don’t assume any risk. Inflation risk is the biggest problem you have to deal with. Let’s say the dollar increases in value relative to the BRIC currencies, then you would earn 0% over three years. That doesn’t sound bad right? Well, inflation, despite being 0.19% this last year, probably won’t be 0%. Inflation would make your dollars, having been locked up for three years, worth less and less each year. This risk exists for any investment… if you aren’t moving forward, you’re moving backwards.

Anytime you invest your money, you want to compare your investment against a safe return. You have to decide whether you are getting enough in anticipated return to take on the risk you assume with that investment. A three year (36-month) certificate of deposit currently yields somewhere between 2.50% – 2.80% APY, as of September 2009. Your principal is protected in the MarketSafe CD but your anticipated return has to at least beat your 100% safe alternative investment. If you were to earn 0%, you’ve actually lost 2.80% plus whatever inflation took out the back door.

Next Steps

For now we’re going to pass on the CD as we do some more research in the space. I’m always hesitant to lock up anything for such a long time but a little bit of money might not be a bad idea just to get a little exposure. Do you have any experience in Forex or Forex CDs? Or have you been looking at ways to diversify outside the US? Any and all directions you can point me in would be very helpful!

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